Georgian population to decline dramatically says demographic expert

The current population of Georgia is 4.4 million according to the National Statistics Office of Georgia. The United Nations Organization registers 4.2 million. Sociology expert, Giorgi Tsuladze of the Institute of Demography and Sociology at Ilia State University, disagrees with both estimates, maintaining it’s closer to 3.8 million. He estimates that it will decrease to 3.5 million by 2015-2020.

In 1990 the number of live births in Georgia was over 92,000. By 2002-2003 it decreased to 40,000, the lowest number in the last 20 years. By 2009, the National Statistics Office, the number of births reached 63,000 but fell in 2010 to 61,000. Tsuladze thinks the live birth ratio could be 300,000 per year if each family had over ten children. But given the socio-economic situation, the average maximum is three children.

The Director of the Institute of Demography and Sociology, Avtandil Sulaberidze, states that another factor for the expected decrease of live births in the country could be the divorce ratio. Since 1990 the number of divorces in Georgia before five years of marriage was decreasing, but the number of divorces after 20 years of marriage was increasing. In 2005 the number of divorces after 20 years of marriage was 23% of all divorces and the largest proportion, although it dropped to 20% by 2010.

The Georgian population rose from 4 million in the 1950s to a peak of 5.5 million in 1992 a year after independence. Then the trend changed and the population began to decline. As a portion of the population, Georgia was named the largest emigration country in the world in the 2007 World Bank report. The 2002 population census in Georgia revealed a net migration loss of 1.1 million persons since the early 1990s, or 20% of the population. The decline in Georgia's population was mainly due to the emigration of ethnic minorities. The United Nations Organization recorded over 300,000 Russians, 200,000 Georgians, 200,000 Armenians, 85,000 Greeks, 50,000 Azerbaijanis, 50,000 Ukrainians and 20,000 Jews migrated from Georgia since independence.

While Tsuladze predicts a dramatic decline in the population to 3.5 million by 2015-2020, he predicts a better future. He estimates that Georgia's population will increase by 2030 despite the high rate of migration (which he predicts will continue until 2050.)

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