The United Nations has predicted that the seven billionth person on earth will be born on October 31, 2011. The alternative date is 2013. While the UN predicts that the birth will occur this year, the Vienna Institute of Demography thinks it is more likely to occur early in 2013 or even as late as 2020.
The confusion about how many people there are on earth and when the seven billionth person will actually be born is related to many complex issues, such as accurate country census data. Census data is usually collected every five or ten years, and some countries have not verified their data (in other words, there were controversies that have yet to be reviewed). International census experts say that some countries are under-counting; others say that some are over-counting. Most countries predict that their census count is inaccurate by about 3%. In addition, countries are rarely inaccurate in reporting their death rates, birth rates, child mortality rates, and so on. Many countries have reported a decline in fertility with the average woman now only having 2.5 children, half as many as her grandmother 50 years ago. Furthermore, migration rates from one country to another add another level of confusion.
For example, the UN estimates that India’s population will grow from 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion by 2050. However, the Vienna Institute of Demography predict a growth rate from 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion.
However, more important than the actual timing of the birth of the seven billionth person, or the “uncertainty range” (whether the discrepancy is months or years) is whether the world’s population will peak within the next few decades or whether it will continue exponentially.
The UN predicts that the world’s population will be more than 10 billion people by 2100, although the Vienna Institute of Demography says it is unlikely to be this high. The UN predicts that the population will continue to rise in 2100. However, the VID says that there is an 85% chance that the world’s population will have peaked by then, and therefore will not continue to rise. Nobody knows for sure. But one thing the demographers do know is that an increasing global population will have important consequences for the planet.
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