Asteroid impact on February 15, 2013 close but unlikely

Scientists maintain (The Telegraph, March 7, 2012) that an asteroid with a force of 1,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb will pass extremely close to Earth in a year’s time on February 15, 2013.

Last month Spanish astronomers, at the OAM Observatory in La Sagra in Spain, discovered Asteroid 2012DA14 at a distance of 2.5 million kilometres from Earth. They indicated that the asteroid rock was 45 metres wide with a mass of 120,tonnes and a velocity of 12.72 kilometres per second. It is made of rock, minerals, and iron oxide with possibly some ice or and gases. They estimated that its trajectory will come within 27,000 kilometres of Earth (closer than satellites already orbit Earth at 35,700 kilometres in space).

Is there a possibility that it will impact Earth? NASA’s Near Earth Object Program scientists don’t think so. They estimated that Asteroid 2012DA14 will also come close to Earth in years 2020 and 2057, and that the combined odds of it hitting Earth is 1 in 4,550 (i.e. 0.022%).

If Asteroid 2012DA14 did strike Earth it would cause a nuclear-type explosion that could obliterate a large city, depending on its impact site. It is estimated that the impact would be equivalent to the meteorite that exploded 10 kilometres above Tunguska River in Russia on June 30, 1908, which destroyed 80 million trees over an area of 2,000 square kilometres. However, it is more likely that people won’t even be able to see it without being in an Observatory.

Thousands of tons of micrometeorites, or Brownlee particles, fall to Earth every year. On the morning of September 28, 1969, a meteorite landed in Murchison, in the state of Victoria in Australia. The Murchison Meteor left several hundreds of pieces ranging in size from a few ounces to 113 pounds (51 kilograms) with only minor property damage to a hay shed roof.

A 50,000 tonne meteorite struck Wolfe Creek in Western Australia about 300,000 years ago leaving a crater about 875 metres wide and 60 metres deep.

Martina Nicolls is the author of the novel “Bardot’s Comet” (2011).

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