The Sudan Curse: conflict in the oil region between North and South Sudan

Conflict is continuing in Sudan and the main cause is the oil rich region between the North and South.

On July 9, 2011, after a referendum in southern Sudan, the country split into two – the Republic of Sudan (the “North” with Khartoum as the capital) and the newest nation in the world, the Republic of South Sudan (the “South” with Juba as the capital). The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of the south and the National Congress Party of the north signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005 that ended decades of civil war. The SPLA became the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The agreement decreed that after six years a referendum would determine whether the south should remain with Sudan or become independent. The referendum was held on January 9, 2011. They chose independence with an overwhelming 99% of votes.

However, there were three states that did not vote in the election in July 2011 – South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei. These areas were typically referred to as the border region. Now they are termed “The Three Areas.” There was never a clear cut demarcation between the north and south. A similar referendum was to be held in Abyei to determine whether the disputed area joined the North or the South, but this has been postponed due to a failure to reach an agreement on the terms. While the citizens of Abyei are poor, the land is rich – with oil.

The difficulty in reaching an agreement of the terms of the referendum for the three areas is due to issues regarding the division and allocation of oil revenues between the North and the South. Conflict is not just an oil issue. It is also related to food (access, prices, and lack of food causing malnutrition in the area), water, social services, a population of internally displaced people (IDP), and dysfunctional local governments. Post-independence citizenship problems arose. Abyei is the main oil-producing region, but South Kordofan and Blue Nile were Muslim majority states who fought with the South even though they were on the north of the 1956 border.

Hence the three areas comprise three groups: (1) The Misseriya tribe of Arab Muslim nomads who migrate from the North into Abyei for a few months each year to graze cattle (the North government wants them to be able to vote in the referendum); (2) permanent residents of Abyei, the Ngok Dinka tribe who are predominantly Christian; (3) the people of South Kordofan and Blue Nile in which the peace agreement said that there should be “Popular Consultations” to determine their location (consultations began but conflict in the region in 2011 disrupted them and caused many residents to leave). In addition, there are Southerners who lost the right to remain in North Sudan since the post-independence ruling by the Sudanese parliament in Khartoum, and whom were not eligible to vote to be part of the South. This has created tensions over resources in the three areas.

There are reportedly between 8,000 and 9,000 rebels fighting across the border in Blue Nile. These rebels are the SPLM-North, fighting against the North government. It denies receiving support from South Sudan and the South Sudan government denies any connection with the rebels. The unknown factor is the rumour that the rebels may link with three rebel movements in Darfur (west of Sudan, part of the North) who oppose the Northern government.

The government of the North and the South continue their tense interactions, primarily because 90% of the South’s income revenue comes from oil. Tensions rose around the status of Abyei that was statutorily part of both South Kordofan and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. As South Kordofan was slated to remain with the North while Northern Bahr el Ghazal was seceding together with the rest of South Sudan, the status of Abyei was unclear, and both the Khartoum and Juba governments claimed the area as their own. South Sudan accused the North of bombing two Southern oil wells using its air force on 1 March 2012, destroying both structures. The North denied the allegations.

While the “oil curse” is a large problem, the conflicts are complex, varied, and inter-related: demarcation, resources, post-independence citizenship, loyalties, religion, and tribal. Conflict since March 26, 2012, has escalated with renewed disputes over oil. The South Sudan government said a Sudan government plane dropped two bombs 35 kilometres from Bentui, believing the target to be the oil fields, but this has been denied by the Sudan government in the North. The conflict has been referred to as the “biggest confrontation since independence.” It is believed that the conflict is linked to an April summit of the two governments to discuss their concerns. South Sudan believes that the Khartoum government wants to sabotage the summit.

In February, North and South agreed to demarcate most of the border within three months, excluding five disputed pockets of land. They agreed to devise a framework in which citizens could have basic freedoms to live, work, and own property on either side of the border, and travel between the two countries of Sudan. All citizens are waiting for such a framework.

Martina Nicolls is the author of “The Sudan Curse” (2009), “Kashmir on a Knife-Edge” (2010) and “Bardot’s Comet” (2011).