The Undoing Project (2017) is about two
Israeli researchers, Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Memorial Prize winner in Economic
Sciences in 2002) and Amos Tversky – and their enduring friendship that changed
the world.
In 1969, when Kahneman and Tversky met at the Hebrew University the two men
couldn’t be more different. Danny was always sure he was wrong. Amos was always
sure he was right. Danny was a pessimist and introverted, while Amos was an
optimist and extraverted. To others, the mind of Amos was logical, whereas
Danny’s mind was a mystery. Amos wanted to be a poet, but became a scientist,
but Danny was a poet and a scientist. Danny
was a psychologist, and Amos was a mathematical psychologist – whatever that
meant. But they were both geniuses with a vision to search for ‘simple,
powerful truths’ – and together there was lots of laughter.
When they worked ‘they nearly merged, physically, into a single form’ –
they were sitting next to each other in front of a single typewriter.
The first third of the book describes, separately, the outsider Kahneman’s and
the insider Tversky’s upbringing, background, personality, and skills. Next,
Lewis focuses on the two of them together – and the field they were involved in,
and finally on the ‘Undoing Project’ (the prospect theory) – risk, regret and
unrealized possibilities, and the psychology of judgement and decision-making.
I was interested in this book because of their initial research (I studied
mathematical probability and psychology, as well as logic). Their research
looked at families with six children, in the order of girl, boy, girl, boy,
boy, girl, and asked research participants what was the estimate of the number
of families surveyed that had six children in the order of boy, girl, boy, boy,
boy, boy. (My mother had six children in the order of girl, girl, boy, girl,
girl, girl). Kahneman and Tversky were not really interested in the order; they
were trying to determine how people judged (predicted) – or misjudged – the
odds of any situation when the odds were hard, or impossible, to know. And why
is it important? Because, for example, in a hospital, doctors ‘were never
completely certain about anything’ – leading to Judgement under Uncertainty –
which was a matter of life and death.
But that was not what made Kahnemann a Nobel prize winner. When parted
through employment in different universities in 1979, their study turned to regret:
the ‘if only.’ When Danny thought the relationship was over, Amos thought it
was continuing.
Not only is this biography about Kahneman and Tversky’s work on irrational
decision-making, and the eleven cognitive illusions that affect judgement, this
is a book about ‘fertile pairs’ – two brilliant collaborative minds that act as
one, and cannot be separated. It’s an outstanding book.
MARTINA NICOLLS is an international aid and development consultant, and the author of:- Similar But Different in the Animal Kingdom
(2017), The Shortness of Life: A Mongolian Lament (2015), Liberia’s Deadest
Ends (2012), Bardot’s Comet (2011), Kashmir on a Knife-Edge (2010) and The
Sudan Curse (2009).
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