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The burden of proof




If a person asserts that they have solved a long-standing mathematical problem and produces the written proof, who has the burden of proof – the creator of the evidence of the proof to make it understandable or the cadre of mathematicians to read, understand, and approve or reject the proof?

Japanese mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki has written a proof for the ABC Conjecture using his inter-universal Teichmuller (IUT) theory, but mathematicians say that they can’t understand it. Is it Mochizuki’s responsibility (burden of proof) to make the proof understandable or is it the rest of the mathematical community’s responsibility to understand it so that they can accept that the long-standing ABC Conjecture has been solved.

The burden of proof (onus probandi) in the legal sense is the necessity for a person(s) or entity to produce sufficient evidence of a charge or claim. For example, a person stealing has the benefit of assumption and the person accusing that person of stealing has the burden of proof – i.e. to prove that the person in fact did the stealing. So the alleged thief does not need to prove innocence, but the accuser must prove (beyond a reasonable doubt) the guilt. This is where the statement ‘innocent until proven guilty’ stems from.

The philosophic burden of proof is the same: the person who states a claim – that another party disputes (or is unsure whether it is true or not) – has the burden of proof to justify the claim. The obligation is on the person presenting the idea to provide evidence to support its truth. Once the evidence has been presented it is the responsibility of any opposing person(s) to prove that the evidence is adequate or not adequate – accepted or not accepted.

Mathematically, or scientifically, a person can present their evidence of a solution to a problem, and the mathematical community (the reviewers) may point out that it is insufficient, requiring more data or analysis. This is usually repeated until a sufficient number of experts agree that the solution (the proof) has an acceptable level of data and explanation. All the while there are standard procedures – community conventions – to meet the burden of proof.

From 7-11 December 2015, interested mathematicians met at the Mathematical Institute, at the University of Oxford, England, to discuss the merits of Shinichi Mochizuki’s inter-universal Teichmuller theory, which offered a solution to the ABC Conjecture. The mathematicians found the work of Mochizuki confusing (New Scientist, December 16, 2015).

Mochizuki posted the IUT theory, a 500-page proof of the ABC Conjecture, online on August 31, 2012 in four papers – after working on the proof for ten years since 2002. The ABC Conjecture, in its extreme brevity, is about the nature of numbers commencing with a + b = c, where a, b, and c are whole numbers, and a and b do not share any common factors (i.e. they cannot be divisible by the same prime number). Conjectures come before theorems – they are observations that mathematicians believe to be true, but they have not been confirmed as true. Mathematicians create theories to explain the universe – and hence the proof of the ABC Conjecture has to, in some way, explain the very foundations of mathematics (addition and multiplication). If the proof is true, it would open up the solution to other mathematical problems. Most students of number theory have attempted the proof – as I have in my university days.

As Caroline Chen stated in her May 9, 2013 article, The Paradox of the Proof, Mochizuki did not send his work to the Annals of Mathematics – the usual convention when submitting a major proof. It may have gone unnoticed if it weren’t for Jordan Ellenberg, a mathematics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who received an computerized email alert about the papers on September 2. Ellenberg posted the papers on his blog, and they received media attention.

That’s when the mathematical debate began – and the confusion – because the mathematical community could not understand the proof – it was impossible to read, they said. The problem was this: in writing the solution, Mochizuki created new strands of mathematics, with their own terminology, that had to be understood first, before people could determine whether his proof was adequate and accepted. These new strands included anabelioids, Frobenioids, the etale theta function, and log-shells.

After the four papers in 2012 (called IUTT-1 to IUTT-4) Mochizuki posted progress reports in December 2013 and December 2014. His argument relies on understanding his six previous works from 2005, such as the Hodge-Arakelov Theory of elliptic curves (HAT), the Galois-Theoretic Kodaira-Spencer morphism of an elliptic curve (GTKS), the HAT Survey 1, the HAT Survey 2, topics in absolute anabelian geometry III (AbsTopIII), and the etale theta function and its Frobenioid-theoretic manifestations (EtTh). 

From 2012-2015, the mathematical community vented their frustration and anger with Mochizuki’s ‘unorthodox’ approach and for not making his work understandable. Mathematicians invited him to their universities so that he could explain his work, but they were not prepared to go to him in Japan because of time and work commitments. Mochizuki did not want to leave Japan. Some mathematicians stated that his refusal to cooperate placed the burden on them – because mathematics was, after all, a community of cooperative colleagues – and that if he couldn’t explain his work, then the job was not done. Several mathematicians made an effort to read his work, but were discouraged by the terminology, original concepts, and the dense writing of the proof.

Hence in December 2015 the Clay Mathematics Institute and the Mathematical Institute hosted the workshop at the University of Oxford for mathematicians to discuss Mochizuki’s proof (this is actually the third workshop in three years). His proof involves elliptic curves, which is geometry (arithmetic geometry, called anabelian geometry). The aim was, collectively, to become more familiar with Mochizuki’s previous works and their integration and culmination that, combined, lead to his complicated proof.

But what could the mathematicians hope for in five days?

Mochizuki, not wanting to leave Japan, was cooperative in answering questions in emails and two videoconference sessions: one on December 8 and the other on December 11, both for about two hours. One of the mathematicians at the workshop last week was Go Yamashita, Mochizuki’s colleague at Kyoto University, who presented his understanding of IUT. Others presented their knowledge of the other new strands of mathematics in Mochizuki’s proof – his ‘magnum opus’ or ‘mammoth proof.’ The workshop led to some understanding by some attendees of the ‘strikingly new ideas’ – yet still much frustration. So some progress has been gained. Rather than confusion with the whole, there is now only confusion with the parts – some ‘specific points.’

What do we know of Shinichi Mochizuki? He is shy, focused, travel-averse, unconventional, and unorthodox, but no crackpot. Born in Tokyo in March 1969, his family moved to New York when he was five years old. He gained his doctorate at Princeton University in America in 1992 at the age of 23, and worked at Harvard University for two years. Known to be a brilliant mathematician, he moved to the Research Institute for Mathematical Sciences (RIMS) in Kyoto, Japan, where he has persistently and intensively studied the ABC Conjecture and created his own world of mathematics in the process. At 33 he was promoted to professor. He calls himself an ‘Inter-Universal Geometer.’


Brian Conrad, mathematics professor at Stanford, who wrote a summary of the December 2015 workshop on the website, Mathbabe, said that despite no ‘aha’ moment, the work of Mochizuki should be taken seriously.

Much of the problem is in simplifying the complex, using the universal language of mathematics. Conrad states that there has not been a significant ‘clean-up’ of Mochizuki’s work to give a more streamlined pathway into the work with clearer terminology and notations. He concluded with ‘it is the efficient communication of great ideas in written and oral form that inspires people to invest the time to learn a difficult mathematical theory. What is needed is ‘instructive visible relevant examples and concise arguments that clearly illustrate what is the point’ and if these are not provided, the people who say they understand a theory ‘are not trying hard enough.’

Conrad indicated that the primary burden now is on those who understand IUT to explain the substantial points to a wider community of arithmetic geometers – specifically IUT, the relationship between number theory and arithmetic geometry, and the recasting of the proof of Szpiro’s Conjecture (and the theory of heights).

The burden of proof, as Conrad sees it, is through interloctors or mediators who understand Mochizuki’s core concepts and his original mathematical strands, and who can communicate it coherently to others in order to cross the bridge between the creator and the mathematical community.

A teacher, for example, as someone who has mastered a mathematical concept, has a responsibility to employ various techniques, explanations, and examples in order for students to grasp the concepts. The language, the illustrations, streamlining the steps, the patience, are all part of the process of teaching for learning. At the same time, students need to be receptive – and it helps if they are interested.

The mathematical community is interested in Mochizuki’s proof because it is important and vital to understanding more than just a mathematical concept. Just like an interested student who wants to understand a concept, but the concept is presented in a way that is difficult, time-consuming, and with new terminology, there is every likelihood that frustration and anger will ensue – on both sides.

The next workshop to discuss the ABC Conjecture proof will be held in July 2016. Hopefully, the gap between knowledge and understanding can be reduced, with the arrival of a long-awaited ‘aha’ moment.


http://mathbabe.org/2015/12/15/notes-on-the-oxford-iut-workshop-by-brian-conrad/

Martina Nicolls is the author of Bardot's Comet (2011) about science and mathematics.


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