Uncertainty is one of people’s greatest fears – but its worse when there is
collective uncertainty – when groups or populations are unsure what is
happening and what to do. After the magnitude 7.9 San Francisco earthquake in
1906, that killed 3,000 people, psychologists studied how people respond in times of uncertainty, chaos, and confusion. How did people respond? They responded by
getting married.
An article in The Washington Post
(Febuary 5, 2016) explained that in 10 days after the San Francisco earthquake,
marriages surged to four times the normal rate in the region. In those uncertain
times, and it times of chaos and confusion, couples found stability in each other. Families, colleagues, and communities also tended to bond closely with each other.
Jamie Holmes, in his book, Nonsense: The Power of Not Knowing, outlines
people’s experiences during major disasters. He states that in times of
uncertainty, people either marry or divorce, or do crazy things in order to
lessen confusion in their lives.
Psychologists think that while some people are uncomfortable with chaos and confusion, leading to hasty decisions, others will try to wait it out. But
usually, at some time, both groups have a need for closure. They said, though,
that a high need for closure might lead to precarious decision making, called the urgency effect (the tendency to jump
to conclusions). There is also the
permanence effect (a stubborn tendency not to change your mind even with
contradictory evidence). People also remember past situations in which there
was uncertainty and may feel less tolerant toward future uncertainty. People
prefer clarity over ambiguity.
Jamie Holmes calls uncertainty an emotional amplifier – a term
psychologists Tim Wilson and Daniel Gilbert used in their experiments. The
experiments asked participants to watch pleasant or unpleasant films. Afterwards
they were asked to repeat phrases related to certainty or uncertainty to induce
certain emotions. The results showed that when participants felt uncertain they
took more pleasure in an enjoyable film, and more displeasure during an
unpleasant film. Their experiences – both pleasant and unpleasant – were
heightened or amplified when uncertain.
Jamie Holmes said that feelings of uncertainty can be lowered through
reading fiction, doing puzzles, eating new food, learning a new language,
traveling abroad, remembering time spent abroad, or thinking about a musical
experience. Why? Cultural events made people more open to uncertainty (less
fearful of it) and it also made them more creative. Holmes said that the
ability to face uncertainty was becoming more important in these fast paced,
fast changing times.
So dealing with uncertainty is both an emotional and an intellectual
experience. Because uncertainty is an emotional amplifier, people who are
creative and innovative tend to experience very high highs and very low lows. Not
harnessing the creativity while experiencing high highs and low lows can be
exceptionally unsettling, disorientating, and dysfunctional. Expressing uncertainty
through cultural activities can lead to either crazy outcomes or creative
outcomes.
MARTINA NICOLLS is the author of:-
The Shortness of Life: A Mongolian Lament (2015), Liberia’s Deadest Ends
(2012), Bardot’s Comet (2011), Kashmir on a Knife-Edge (2010) and The Sudan
Curse (2009).
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