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2016 census count at Dadaab refugee camp: less than first estimated




A census count at Dadaab refugee camp, the world’s largest refugee camp, shows less people than first thought. Dadaab is a town in northern Kenya. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) manages refugees in five camps that form one large complex. That figure was calculated in October 2015. In 2013 the governments of Kenya and Somalia signed an agreement to repatriate the refugees back to Somalia.

The United Nations (UN) estimated the figure in October 2015 at 329,811 refugees with 80% of them women and children. In July 2016, before the census count, the UN estimated Dadaab’s population at 341,574.

In July and August 2016, the UN conducted a census – actually a ‘verification exercise’ – of the number of refugees in Dadaab. The count was 283,558 – that’s 58,016 fewer people than estimated.

Included in the reduced figure are 40,454 persons whom the UN found to be ‘false refugees’ – not genuine Somalian refugees, and believed to be Kenyan citizens. There will be further investigations once their citizenship is confirmed – and if confirmed, their names will be removed from the refugee register, said Duke Mwancha, a spokesperson for the UN refugee agency’s Public Information Unit.

The difference of 58,016 people could be an indication that there were ‘spontaneous returns to Somalia, according to Mwancha. Kenyan officials have not responded on possible reasons for the apparent loss of thousands of refugees.

As part of the census count, some refugees were asked about their repatriation intentions. Nearly 70,000 Somalis (about a quarter of the population) indicated a willingness to return home soon. Mwancha indicated that this did not mean that the remaining 75% were not interested in returning home to Somalia – 214,000 refugees were not asked.

Intending returning refugees would still need to go to the Return Help Desks in the camps to be assisted. The UN says it has already assisted about 30,000 Somalis to return home (by road) since the start of voluntary repatriation nearly two years ago. The number of assisted returns dropped sharply in September. This was due to officials in the Jubaland area of southern Somalia announcing on 31 August that they would not process any more returnees due to lack of resources and services. About 2,000 refugees, mainly women and children, were due to be returned to Jubaland. They were initially stranded, and Jubbaland accepted them, but the officials said that they would receive no more refugees. Jubaland is a semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia, near the Kenyan border.

The UN declares only 12 regions in Somalia (most in Jubbaland) to be safe destinations for repatriated refugees from Dadaab. These include Jubaland, Baidoa, Bal-ad, Belet Wayne, Jowar, Kismayo, Luuq, and Mogadisu. The Kenyan government had a target to reduce the number of refugees in Dadaab by the end of 2016, and they may be on course to achieving their target.

Jubbaland officials said that 16,000 returnees from Dadaab, and 40,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Jubaland did not have basic necessities, such as health care, hygiene, shelter, and adequat drinking water. Therefore they have stopped the number of refugees being repatriated into Jubaland until they have adequate services to help people. Human rights agencies have indicated that the repatriation program in Dadaab should meet international standards for voluntary return.

In the past month, UN flew a small number of refugees from Dadaab to Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. But those flights have been suspended due to ‘a security emergency’ according to Mwancha. This is expected to be temporary and is related to the recent bombings and extremist attacks in the capital.





Martina Nicolls is currently in Nairobi, Kenya, working on Somalia education issues.


MARTINA NICOLLS is an international aid and development consultant, and the author of:- The Shortness of Life: A Mongolian Lament (2015), Liberia’s Deadest Ends (2012), Bardot’s Comet (2011), Kashmir on a Knife-Edge (2010) and The Sudan Curse (2009).

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